The Ashes, 2025-26: AUS vs ENG 4th Test Match Prediction, Preview, Playing11, Pitch and Weather Report

AUS vs  ENG 4th Test Match Preview – As Australia prepares to host England for the iconic Boxing Day Test at the Melbourne Cricket Ground (MCG), the series has already reached a definitive turning point. Australia secured the Ashes 2025-26 after winning the third Test in Adelaide by 82 runs, taking an unassailable 3-0 lead. England now finds itself fighting for pride and to avoid a potential 5-0 whitewash, while Australia aims to continue its dominant streak even as key injuries begin to reshape their lineup.

AUS vs ENG 4th Test Match Details

AUS vs ENG 4th Test Match Preview

Australia enters the Boxing Day Test in a buoyant mood after retaining the urn in just 11 days of play across three matches. Their campaign has been built on a ruthless bowling attack, led by Mitchell Starc (22 wickets in the series), and sensational batting from Travis Head (379 runs) and Alex Carey (267 runs). However, the hosts face major personnel shifts: Captain Pat Cummins (back) and veteran spinner Nathan Lyon (hamstring) have both been ruled out for the remainder of the series. Steve Smith returns to lead the side at a venue where he historically averages over 77.

England’s “Bazball” approach has faltered under the relentless pressure of Australian conditions. While Joe Root remains their primary run-scorer (219 runs), the lack of consistent support and the loss of Jofra Archer to a side strain have left the tourists’ attack thin. To spark a revival, England has handed a debut to young Warwickshire all-rounder Jacob Bethell at number three.

AUS vs ENG 4th Test Pitch and Weather Report

• Pitch: The MCG pitch is expected to be seam-friendly with significant grass left on the surface to assist bowlers early on. Curators noted that while it will favor fast bowlers initially with bounce and movement, it typically flattens out to become good for batting once the ball softens. Spinners are expected to find very little turn throughout the match.

• Weather: Boxing Day is forecast to be mostly cloudy and mild, with a maximum temperature around 20°C. There is a slight (20%) chance of a passing shower on Day 1, but the first four days are expected to be largely fine for play. Heat warnings issued previously for the region are expected to subside slightly by match day.

AUS vs ENG 4th Test Playing 11 (Confirmed & Probable)

Australia (Probable)

1. Jake Weatherald

2. Travis Head

3. Marnus Labuschagne

4. Steve Smith (c)

5. Usman Khawaja

6. Alex Carey (wk)

7. Cameron Green

8. Michael Neser

9. Mitchell Starc

10. Todd Murphy (or Jhye Richardson if opting for all-pace)

11. Scott Boland

England (Confirmed)

1. Zak Crawley

2. Ben Duckett

3. Jacob Bethell (Debut)

4. Joe Root

5. Harry Brook

6. Ben Stokes (c)

7. Jamie Smith (wk)

8. Will Jacks

9. Gus Atkinson

10. Brydon Carse

11. Josh Tongue

AUS vs ENG 4th Test Squads

• Australia: Steven Smith (c), Scott Boland, Alex Carey, Brendan Doggett, Cameron Green, Travis Head, Josh Inglis, Usman Khawaja, Marnus Labuschagne, Todd Murphy, Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson, Mitchell Starc, Jake Weatherald, Beau Webster. (Out: Pat Cummins, Nathan Lyon).

• England: Ben Stokes (c), Jacob Bethell, Harry Brook, Brydon Carse, Zak Crawley, Ben Duckett, Will Jacks, Matthew Potts, Jamie Smith, Josh Tongue, Gus Atkinson, Joe Root, Ollie Pope, Matthew Fisher, Shoaib Bashir. (Out: Jofra Archer).

AUS vs ENG 4th Test Match Prediction

Australia remains the strong favorite with a win probability of approximately 60%. Their familiarity with the MCG, combined with Scott Boland’s exceptional record at his home ground (average 14.62), gives them a massive edge. While the absence of Cummins and Lyon creates a gap, Australia’s depth in Michael Neser and Todd Murphy is formidable. England’s hope rests on Joe Root finding a massive score and their inexperienced bowling unit exploiting the early moisture in the pitch.

Winner Prediction: Australia to win and take a 4-0 lead in the series.